Although this season is far from over with big races such as the Vuelta a Espana, the Tour of Lombardy and the World Championships still to be won, one of the main talking points of next season has already presented itself. Will Andy Schleck be able to win the Tour de France as part of a new team, and in so doing, defeat his ex-directeur sportif Bjarne Riis and the reigning Tour champion Alberto Contador?

Both riders will be riding for new teams, Contador will be in the unusual position of riding for the team Andy Schleck has just left, while Schleck, along with brother Frank, has moved away from Riis to start a Luxembourg based team. Incidentally, as well as Contador and Schleck, the third rider who finished on the Tour podium will also be riding for a different team next year. Denis Menchov will be making the move from Rabobank to Mauro Gianetti’s Team Geox. This will be the first time ever that all of the podium finishers in the Tour de France have changed teams for the following season.

In a recent Real Peloton podcast Matt Rendell said this when discussing Frank and Andy Schleck’s move to their new Luxembourg team

these guys are at the top of their game, they’re suddenly going to a new set of structures and they’re going to have to bed in there and gel with new team mates

While the Tour de France itself is a test of physical strength, a move to a new team could prove to be an ample test of mental strength for both of the major contenders. As Joe Lindsey pointed out in a recent article, Contador has certainly proved in the past that he has the resolve to deal with the most taxing of challenges.

To summarise, the Spaniard has bounced back from a life threatening injury sustained early in his career. He was implicated in Operation Puerto and witnessed the subsequent demise of his Liberty Seguros team. But he found his feet once more, signing for Johan Bruyneel’s Discovery Channel team. Having won the Tour in 2007, he was dealt the blow that he would be prohibited from defending his crown in 2008.

Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador, and Denis Menchov will all be riding for new teams next year.

Again he regrouped and did the most impressive thing possible given the circumstances, he won the other two Grand Tours instead. In 2009, through no fault of his own, he found himself lodged in the middle of the Armstrong/Bruyneel relationship. Instead of letting underhand tactics and snide remarks from within his own team get him down, he got on with his work and won the Tour again. Finally, this year, Contador was faced with the ignominy of every one of his 2009 Tour team mates moving to Armstrong’s Radio Shack. Yet again, he coped admirably and won the Tour for a third time. Contador’s route to becoming a triple Tour winner has most certainly not been plain sailing.

Both Schleck and Contador are now faced with the prospect of trying to win the Tour while riding for a new team. Since the re-introduction of trade teams in 1962*, there have been 47 editions of the Tour. On only six of these occasions has a rider won the Tour during his first year on a new team. It does not bode well for Andy Schleck that two of these six riders are Alberto Contador and Bjarne Riis.

Contador achieved this feat in 2007 during his first year riding for Discovery Channel. Although he won the Tour that year, he was not signed to a team that expected him to challenge for the yellow jersey. When Contador joined the Bruyneel setup, Ivan Basso was the undisputed leader and a major favourite to win the Tour. When Operation Puerto eventually caught up with the Italian, leadership duties were bestowed upon the next rider in line, Levi Leipheimer. Bruyneel expected Leipheimer to challenge for the podium while setting the more modest goal for Contador of the white young rider’s jersey. This allowed Contador to rise to the top of the cycling world uninhibited by pressure and expectation, a luxury which will not be afforded Andy Schleck on his new team.

When Bjarne Riis won the Tour in 1996 he had just left the Gewiss-Ballan team to join Team Telekom. One of his main rivals for the Tour that year was Evgeni Berzin, winner of the Giro in 1994, and runner up in 1995, who was riding for Riis’s former team under the tutelage of Riis’s former team manager. The Russian took the yellow jersey on stage seven only to cede it to Riis two days later. Riis went on to wear it all the way to Paris, while Berzin faded badly to finish the Tour in 20th.

Bjarne Riis won the 1996 Tour de France beating his ex-teammate along the way.

Due to Contador’s impending transfer to Saxo Bank, Schleck will also be faced with the prospect of attempting to defeat a rider being guided by his former team manager. And in Riis, Schleck will be up against a man who knows him extremely well and who has faced, and won, this type of psychological battle before.

Although Schleck has signed up for a brand new team, there will be some elements of continuity. Kim Andersen, a directeur sportif at Saxo Bank since 2004 will be on board to aid the young Luxembourg rider. A handful of Schleck’s current Saxo Bank team mates will also be there. Along with his brother Frank, Jens Voigt, Jacob Fuglsang and Stuart O’Grady are all expected to ride for the new Luxembourg team. However, unlike Contador, Schleck has only ever ridden for one professional team under one team manager. As Matt Rendell suggested, having never gone through this process before, he is going to need time to bed in and gel with new team mates. A further fact which Andy Schleck will not want to hear is that the Tour de France has never been won by a brand new team. As I’m sure Carlos Sastre (Cervelo 2009) and Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky 2010) will attest to, it is not an easy task.

There are plenty of subplots which will be interesting to see develop as Contador and Schleck take to the road for their new teams. But most of the problems one could expect to face, Contador and Riis have overcome before, while Andy Schleck has not. The Luxembourg rider will be under pressure to finally deliver the goods, having now placed 2nd in three Grand Tours. Contador will be under pressure of his own to become the 6th rider to win four Tours de France. But Contador has far more experience dealing with the change and upheaval that will be faced by both riders next year. It’s early doors yet, but Contador will likely be far better equipped to win the 2011 Tour de France, and if he does, he will become only the 2nd rider ever, after Greg LeMond in 1989 and 1990, to win the Tour two years in a row with two different teams.

*Trade team’s participation in the Tour was put on hiatus in 1967 and 1968 when international teams competed once more, but the trade teams returned in 1969 and have been present ever since.

In the Clásica de San Sebastián last Saturday, Luis León Sánchez won a three man sprint to take top spot ahead of Alexander Vinokourov and Carlos Sastre. Sánchez’s victory means Spanish riders have now claimed six of the last seven editions of their biggest one day race of the year. It was an attack from Vinokourov, who was capitalising on good Tour de France form, about 30km from the finish which proved decisive as only ten riders managed to make the selection. These ten riders would end up populating the first ten places at the finish but it wasn’t only Vinokourov who was coming off the Tour on good form. Of the ten, eight had ridden the Tour (the exceptions were Haimar Zubeldia and Richie Porte), and all eight of them had finished the Tour in the top 20 places overall.

Nicolas Roche was one of the riders strong enough to stay with the front group when the Kazakh attacked. The 26 year old Irishman ended up in 8th place which is his best ever finish in a classic. It isn’t however the best ever placing by an Irishman in the Clásica de San Sebastián. Unsurprisingly, this was achieved by Sean Kelly in 1990 when he came third. In second place was a 21 year old Laurent Jalabert who was riding towards his best result so far in a major race. The winner that day was Miguel Indurain who soloed home almost two and a half minutes ahead of Jalabert and Kelly, completing a one day race podium full of past/future winners of Grand Tours.

Luis León Sánchez - Winner of this year's Clásica de San Sebastián

It is surprising that this classic was never won by Kelly. His calendar tended to revolve around the classics along with Spanish races like the Vuelta a Espana, Volta a Catalunya and the Tour of Pays Basque (making sure to pronounce the ’s’ at the end of ‘Pays’ like the man himself!). So one would have thought that a Spanish classic would have been right up his alley. As it happens, Kelly never even rode the race until 1989 when it became part of the inaugural UCI Road World Cup (which he won). Perhaps it is because the Clásica de San Sebastián tended to clash with two other races which Kelly was partial to, the Tour of Britain and the Tour de Limousin.

Getting back to this year’s race, the leading group of ten was shortly to become three when Sánchez attacked and only Sastre and Vinokourov could follow. Vinokourov paid for his efforts in pulling the breakaway and Sastre was never likely to win a sprint from a small group, which left Sánchez to power home for the first one-day race win of his career. Sánchez, along with his compatriot Sastre ensured a Spanish presence on the podium, a presence which has been felt since 2004.  However, Spain have also had to endure long droughts of success in their home race in the past. In the ten years between 1992 and 2001, not a single Spanish rider finished on the podium.

Even though this race is known traditionally as a race where Tour de France riders do well, there is evidence that gives hope to those who take part without having ridden the Tour. With podiums full of riders who completed the Tour, the past two editions seem to be the exceptions. Before 2009, it’s been 17 years since the Clásica de San Sebastián podium was made up entirely of riders who finished the Tour de France. In the thirty editions of this race, it has happened on only six occasions. Along with 2010, the only other year the podium was made up of riders who finished in the top 20 of the Tour was 1991 when Gianni Bugno (2nd in the Tour), Pedro Delgado (9th in the Tour), and Maurizio Fondreist (15th in the Tour) made up the top three.

Two of this year’s Tour podium finishers Alberto Contador and Denis Menchov decided to give the race a miss but runner up and white jersey winner Andy Schleck took to the startline aiming to become only the third man to finish on the podium of both the Tour and the Clásica de San Sebastián. Unfortunately, Schleck mysteriously abandoned after 120km, leaving Claudio Chiapucci who finished 2nd in both races in 1992, and the aforementioned Gianni Bugno, as the only two riders to have achieved this feat.

Marino Lejarreta - A triple winner of the Clásica de San Sebastián and the only rider to win it along with a Grand Tour in the same season.

Despite this race not going to plan, Andy Schleck has stated his intentions to ride the Vuelta in support of his brother Frank, who will be aiming to win the race overall. Plenty of the top performers in San Sebastián at the weekend are also expected to ride the third and final Grand Tour of the year. Marino Lejarreta remains the only rider to have won the Clásica de San Sebastián and the Vuelta (or indeed any Grand Tour) in the same year when he won both in 1982. Miguel Indurain managed to spread his form even further than this in 1990 when he became one of two riders to have finished on the podium in San Sebastián and managed to finish in the top 10 of both the Tour (10th) and the Vuelta (7th). In 2008, Alejandro Valverde did slightly better than Indurain when he won the Spanish classic, finished the Tour in 8th (and wore the Maillot Jaune) and took 5th place at the Vuelta.

Since 1995, when the Vuelta a Espana was moved from its traditional date in April to its current location in September, it has taken a while for riders to use the Clasicá de San Sebastián as a launch pad to extend their form over to the Vuelta. In the first ten years since the Vuelta was moved, only five of the 30 riders who finished on the podium in San Sebastián went on to race in the Tour of Spain, and only three of these riders finished. Conversely, in the subsequent five years, which brings us up to 2009, all but three riders did start the Vuelta a Espana. The best Vuelta performances by San Sebastián podium finishers in recent years have been Alejandro Valverde in 2008 (5th) and Andrey Kashechkin in 2006 (3rd).

The startlist for the Vuelta a Espana is far from clear, but Nicolas Roche confirmed today that he will definitely be riding his second Grand Tour of the season. Samuel Sánchez, Carlos Sastre, Luis León Sánchez, Joaquim Rodriguez and Robert Gesink are riders who are also very likely to partake in the Vuelta in an attempt to achieve the tricky feat of extending their form from the Tour de France and the Clásica de San sebastián over to the Vuelta.

Alberto Contador has won his third Tour de France joining Philippe Thys, Louison Bobet and Greg LeMond as a three time winner of the world’s biggest race. Alessandro Petacchi has won the Green Jersey in the Tour to add to his wins in the points competition in the Giro and the Vuelta. He becomes the fourth man to achieve the grand slam of points jerseys along with Eddy Merckx, Laurent Jalabert and Djamolidin Abdoujaparov. Andy Schleck has won the white young rider’s jersey for the third time emulating the only other rider who has achieved this feat, Jan Ullrich. Cadel Evans wore the Yellow Jersey as the current world champion becoming only the 2nd man to do so in the past 20 years after Tom Boonen in 2006. Mark Cavendish is now the third rider to have won four or more stages in three consecutive Tours after Eddy Merckx and René le Gréves. The Manxman also became the first man to win back to back road stages into Paris since Charles Pélissier in 1930 and 1931.

Many aspects made this one of the most memorable Tours ever. The crashes and go slow on Stage 2, all the hoo-ha on the cobbles the following day, Cavendish’s ups and downs, Andy Schleck losing his chain and Contador’s subsequent attack, plenty of French stage winners and most importantly of all, the fact that the Yellow, Green and Polka Dot jerseys all came down to their last competitive day of racing.

John Wilcockson wrote an article recently suggesting that Contador could already be on the way out, I completely disagree. I think that Contador rode a perfect race. He rode a solid time trial followed by an unexpectedly excellent performance over the cobbles considering he had never ridden a cobbled race before. He managed to coax Andy Schleck into working with him on Stage Nine to Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne thereby distancing all of their mutual rivals and putting Schleck into the Yellow Jersey which he would then have the responsibility of defending.

He then took the yellow jersey after stage 15 which tasked his team with defending the Maillot Jaune for only three days (not including the final time trial and the procession into Paris). Then despite the presence of a fierce headwind on a flat time trial course he put over half a minute into his closest rival to seal his third Tour victory. It seems to me that Contador’s Tour worked out perfectly, despite the fact he didn’t win a stage. When people think of Greg LeMond they think of a three time Tour winner. They’re less concerned with the fact that he ‘only’ won four Tour stages in his career and won the 1990 edition without winning a stage.

Going into the second half of the race, Schleck led Contador by 41 seconds, the Spaniard took back 10 of those seconds on Stage 12 which meant the riders entered the Pyrenées separated by 31 seconds. On Stage 15 to Bagnéres-de-Luchon the now infamous chain incident occurred which saw Contador seize the Yellow Jersey with a lead of 8 seconds. Whether this attack was sporting or not, Contador clearly had this stage ear marked as the one where he hoped to assume the race lead. Contador countered the attack of the hapless Andy Schleck who dropped his chain shortly after his initial burst of speed. To me, the speed at which Contador zoomed past his team mate Vinokourov suggested that he would have caught and passed Schleck. There is no guarantee that Schleck would have gotten on to the back wheel of Contador. Judging by their inseparability in the subsequent mountains stages, it would seem that the best Schleck could have hoped for on that stage would have been to finish alongside Contador.

The major difference to the race that this would have made is that Schleck would still have been in yellow when it came to the stage finish atop the Col du Tourmalet. But the dynamic of the race would not have changed as Contador would probably have been content taking a 31 second deficit into the final time trial. Even if Schleck had been in yellow, the onus would still have been on him to drop Contador, which he evidently wasn’t able to do anyway. Contador on the other hand, being paced up the climb, seemed like he could have distanced Schleck if he had really applied himself. Therefore, I don’t think the chain incident would have ultimately changed the overall outcome of the race. It’s all ifs, buts and maybes, but it is wonderful that these are the type of ‘what-ifs’ that are being discussed rather than the likes of ‘what would have been the outcome if yer man who tested positive hadn’t have influenced the race?’.

I watched Stage 17 again this morning. Seán Kelly mentioned while commentating that when the Tour is over people will have forgotten the 39 seconds that Contador gained due to Schleck’s dropped chain. Remarkably, the gap between the two in the final general classement was exactly 39 seconds. Had this bizarre twist of fate not occurred, I feel Kelly would have been right. After all, how many minutes was Andy Schleck spared when the decision was made to stage a go slow on Stage 2?

As for Wilcockson’s suggestion that Contador is close to the end of his Tour de France reign; the triple Tour champion is now 27 years old and has won the last five Grand Tours that he’s entered. To put this into perspective the last seven Tour winners and the age they were when they won their first Tour are: Carlos Sastre 33, Oscar Pereiro 29, Lance Armstrong 27, Marco Pantani 28, Jan Ullrich 23, Bjarne Riis 32, Miguel Indurain 27.

Apart from the prodigious Jan Ullrich none of the recent former Tour winners were younger than Contador is now when they won their first Tour de France. He must also be commended for being competitive for the whole year before the Tour, in the week long stage races and the Ardennes classics. Perhaps this is the reason why many people reckon he wasn’t on his best form in this year’s Tour. So what will he be capable of if he returns next year back to his best? He will be very very hard to beat for a number of years to come.

In the race for the Green Jersey Mark Cavendish finished 11 points behind Alessandro Petacchi. Intermediate sprints are worth six points each but Cavendish didn’t contest any of them throughout the Tour (there were 45 in total). If he had won two of them he would have won the Green Jersey. However, we also mustn’t forget that Thor Hushovd was very hard done by on Stage 2 when the race finish was neutralised and no points were awarded when the bunch crossed the line. Hushovd had managed to stay with the main peloton which finished the stage behind Sylvain Chavanel. His main Green Jersey rivals Cavendish and Petacchi finished in groups 10 minutes and 13 minutes down respectively. Undoubtedly, Hushovd was in better form in the first week of the Tour than the last week, which means he probably would have been favourite to take the bunch sprint for 2nd place. Regardless, even if he had only finished 5th on the stage he would have landed an extra 22 points. He lost the Green Jersey by 21.

It was also a great Tour de France for Nicolas Roche who achieved his pre-Tour goal of a top 15 place. He sat in 18th place overall before the stage finish on the Tourmalet. On that foggy evening on the final climb of the race he put in the best performance of his career to take 12th place on the stage. This moved him up into 15th on G.C. capitalising on the time lost by Thomas Lofkvist, Alexander Vinokourov and Carlos Sastre. He followed up his immense performance in the mountains by also putting in his best ever time trial performance, finishing ahead of the likes of Armstrong, Kloden and Kreuziger to defend his 15th place which he carried proudly into Paris last Sunday.

The Tour de France withdrawal is now beginning to set in, but fear not, for there is plenty of other races on the calendar. In fact it’s been a good week for Irishmen all round. David McCann has just secured 5th place overall in the Tour of Qinghai Lake and Dan Martin took 3rd place in the Italian Brixia Tour. Most of the major Tour stars will be back in action this Saturday in the Pro Tour Clásica de San Sebastián. Roche will be present along with Philip Deignan who will be riding his first race since he was forced out of the Tour de Suisse due to illness. And sure it’s not that long until the Vuelta!